NRF: Holiday Retail Sales Up 3% to $579.8 Billion

Total holiday retail sales increased 3 percent to $579.8 billion, according to the National Retail Federation. Meanwhile, online sales for the holiday season increased 11.1 percent. Both results were below forecasts.

NRF, the retail trade association projected growth to be 4.1 percent for the two-month holiday period. Shop.org, the multi-channel retail trade association, forecasted a 12 percent growth in online sales for the months of November and December.

Solid consumer spending in the month of December helped retailers finish the year with a healthy holiday shopping season, NRF said. However economic uncertainties sent a cautious consumer to the stores. December retail sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.8 percent seasonally adjusted from November and increased 2.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

“For over six months, we’ve been saying that the fiscal cliff and economic uncertainty could impact holiday sales. As the number shows, these issues had a visible impact on consumer spending this holiday season,” said Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO.

December retail sales, released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, showed that retail and food services sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as automobiles, gasoline stations, and restaurants) increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and increased 4.7 percent adjusted year-over-year.

Other findings from the NRF’s December retail sales report include:

• Clothing and clothing accessories stores' sales increased 1 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 2.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Electronics and appliance stores’ sales decreased 0.6 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and decreased 0.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Furniture and home furnishing stores’ sales increased 1.4 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 3.0 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• General merchandise stores’ sales were unchanged seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and decreased 3.4 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Health and personal care stores’ sales increased 1.4 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and decreased 0.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Nonstore retailers’ sales increased 0.5 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 9.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores’ sales increased 0.6 percent seasonally-adjusted month-to-month and increased 4.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

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2012 Sales Off To A Good Start

Photo credit: Olivia Bucks/The Oregonian

Gift cards, redemptions and warm weather led to solid and widespread growth for January retail sales, according to two reports.

January retail industry sales (excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants) increased 0.9 percent seasonally adjusted from December and 4 percent unadjusted year-over-year, according to the National Retail Federation.

“Thanks to a combination of unseasonably warm weather across much of the country and millions of shoppers with gift cards burning holes in their pockets, retailers are still riding the tailwinds of consumers’ spending power,” said Matthew Shay, NRF President and CEO. “As a traditionally slower sales month for the industry, it’s encouraging to see such sustained growth in consumer spending and sentiment.”

Meanwhile, January retail sales data, released by the U.S. Department of Commerce, showed total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 5.6 percent unadjusted year-over-year and 0.4 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month.

Among the highlights of NRF data are:

• Sales in sporting goods, hobby, book and music stores increased 1.1 percent seasonally month-to-month and 3.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• General merchandise stores’ sales increased 2 percent seasonally-adjusted over December and 4.7 percent unadjusted year-over-year. 

• Sales at building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers increased 0.2 percent seasonally adjusted from the previous month and a strong 10.5 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Sales at furniture and home furnishing stores decreased 0.2 seasonally adjusted from December and increased 7.9 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

• Electronics and appliance stores’ sales increased 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted month-to-month and decreased 1.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year, and sales at clothing and clothing accessory stores’ sales were flat over the previous month and increased 3.4 percent unadjusted over last year.

Retail Sales Expected to Increase by 3.4% in 2012, NRF Says

Photo Credit: The Oregonian

Retail industry sales are expected to rise 3.4 percent to $2.53 trillion in 2012, according to the National Retail Federation—slightly lower than the pace of 2011, in which sales grew 4.7 percent. NRF excludes the sales of autos, gas and restaurants in its definition of retail sales.

Many economists estimate that real U.S. GDP will rise approximately 2.1 to 2.4 percent as the economy is still being plagued by stubbornly high unemployment and uncertainty over job growth, NRF says.

“Our 2012 forecast is a vote of confidence in the retail industry and our ability to succeed even in a challenging economy, said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO “Over the last 18 months, retailers have been on the forefront of the economic recovery – creating jobs, encouraging consumer spending, and investing in America.”

Many factors will continue to influence the expected slowdown in consumer spending, but none remain more cumbersome than the stalled unemployment rate and lack of newly-created jobs, NRF said. A number of factors contributed to NRF’s 2012 economic forecast, including:

* Employment: The number of Americans out of work is at its lowest level in nearly three years, and the rise in employment and hours worked should bolster income and spending.

* Income growth: Consumers are constrained by modest growth in income. Congress extended the cuts in payroll taxes and unemployment benefits for only two months. While these provide a lift, and are likely, consumers may act cautiously until both are approved. Income is predicted to lag consumption on a year-over-year basis.

* Housing: While most of the economic reports dealing with housing have shown a little more strength, these reports should be treated with caution, as some of the improvement is due in part to unseasonably mild weather. NRF expects home sales and construction will improve slightly in 2012 with low interest rates and affordability at an almost 30 year high.

* Inflation: Increase costs have been a drain on consumer purchasing power due to extraordinary agricultural commodity price inflation as well as high oil prices due to global geopolitical tensions. NRF expects inflation to slow down near a two percent range. Rising gas prices may also put pressure on spending.

* Consumer Credit: Easier lending standards are expanding consumer credit. Revolving credit appeared to break out from its holding pattern showing a big surge in November, which indicates consumers have confidence to take on debt.

* Consumer confidence: Confidence continues to rebound from August lows but remains fragile given volatile financial market conditions and anemic housing markets.

Holiday Retail Sales Season Ends With 4.1% Rise, NRF says

Photo Credit: Reuters

Retail industry sales for the 2011 holiday season increased 4.1 percent, year-over-year, to $471.5 billion, according to the National Retail Federation, beating its expectation of 3.8 percent growth.

The holiday season defined by NRF runs from November 1 till December 31. Sales figures exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants.

"The right mix of strong promotions, lean inventories and an emphasis on value put retailers in the perfect position to end the year on a high note," said Matthew Shay, NRF president and CEO. “A better-than-expected holiday season is welcome news for an economic recovery that continues to be sluggish, and demonstrates retail’s powerful role as an engine of growth.”

December retail industry sales increased 4.1 percent unadjusted year-over-year and declined .06 percent seasonally adjusted from November.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Commerce Department reports that December retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) increased 0.1 percent seasonally adjusted over November and 6.2 percent unadjusted year-over-year.

Consumers stocked up on discretionary gift items in December, including home décor items, sporting goods, books and personal care items, NRF said. Despite a warmer-than-usual month, apparel sales performed extremely well. Though electronics and appliance stores saw growth in November, the shift in spending put a damper on those stores’ December sales.